Monte Carlo Calculator
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Monte Carlo Calculator Info
A Monte Carlo simulation models the probability of different outcomes in a process that cannot easily be predicted due to the intervention of random variables. For sports betting, it simulates up to 100,000 trial runs across your wagers to evaluate your portfolio's expected profit, distribution, and likelihood of finishing in profit.
It also measures closing line value (CLV). Enter each wager's probability as the fair probability of the closing line, however you arrive at it, whether by devigging one sharp book or weighting several, and Expected is your CLV in dollars and Expected ROI your CLV as a percent of the amount staked.
- Events
- One wager per line, in the format: stake, odds, probability (e.g. 100, -110, 52.4).
- Odds Format
- Specifies the format used in odds fields.
- Simulations
- The number of times to run the whole set of wagers. More runs bring the mean closer to the expected profit; a single run shows what one real outcome can look like.
- Expected
- The exact mathematical expected profit (EV) summed across all wagers.
- Expected ROI
- The expected profit as a percentage of the total staked: each wager's edge, weighted by its stake.
- Mean
- The average profit or loss across all simulated runs.
- Expected Std. Dev.
- The exact standard deviation of the total profit, a measure of how far a result typically lands from the expected profit. Each wager adds p(1 − p)(stake × decimal odds)² to the variance, and the standard deviation is the square root of the total.
- Std. Dev.
- The standard deviation of the simulated runs about their mean. It approaches the expected standard deviation as the number of simulations grows, and is zero for a single run.
- Median
- The middle outcome of the simulation distribution (50th percentile).
- Minimum
- The worst-case total profit or loss across all simulated runs.
- Maximum
- The best-case total profit or loss across all simulated runs.
- Profitable
- The percentage of simulation runs that ended with a strictly positive profit.