Neutral Hedge Gambit Calculator

Neutral Hedge Gambit Calculator Info

The Neutral Hedge Gambit is an approach that allows you to get more money down on a parlay with the intention to hedge out the last leg of the parlay if you get to the state where all but the last leg has won. The amount to bet on the last leg can be computed using the opposite side kelly calculation from the Existing Bet Calculator. Editing either Probability or True Odds for either the parlay or the last leg automatically updates the other.

Odds: The odds of the parlay.
Parlay Probability: The probability the parlay wins.
Parlay True Odds: The fair or true odds of the parlay.
Last Leg Probability: The probability the last leg of the parlay wins.
Last Leg True Odds: The fair or true odds of the last leg of the parlay.
Odds Format: Specifies the format used in odds fields.

Math

f = \frac{b p - q}{b p_{2} - q_{2}} = \frac{(b p - q) / b}{(b p_{2} - q_{2}) / b}

(Note that the final form shows how the calculation can be made by running a Kelly calculator twice.)

b: The net fractional odds of the parlay.
p: The probability the parlay wins.
q: The probability the parlay loses.
p₂: The probability the last leg of the parlay wins.
q₂: The probability the last leg of the parlay loses.

Book Links

But How Much Did You Lose? (chapter 6)

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