Swap Equivalent Calculator

Swap Equivalent Calculator Info

The swap equivalent calculator calculates the minimum amount of certain money that you should accept to cash out based on either the “true probability” or the “true odds” of the event. Editing either Probability or True Odds automatically updates the other. The result is given as a percentage of its EV.

Probability: The probability the bet wins.
True Odds: The fair / no-vig odds of the bet.
Payout: The payout of the bet as a percentage of your bankroll.
Odds Format: Specifies the format used in odds fields.

Math

s = \frac{(1 + w)^{p} - 1}{p w}

s: Swap equivalent (percentage of your EV where you'd be indifferent to cashing out or not).
w: The fraction of your bankroll represented by your existing bet.
p: The probability the bet wins.

Book Links

But How Much Did You Lose? (chapter 15)

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