Edge Calculator
Edge Calculator Info
The edge calculator shows the edge of your bet based on the odds and either the “true probability” or the “true odds” of the event. Editing either Probability or True Odds automatically updates the other.
It also measures closing line value (CLV). Enter the fair probability of the closing line as the Probability, however you arrive at it, and the edge is the bet's CLV. If you take the closing line from one market, the Fair Odds Calculator will remove its vig, and the Monte Carlo Calculator measures the CLV of many bets at once.
The Maximum Expected Growth or MEG is also displayed as an output for this calculator. This calculation is useful when you want to choose one amongst several correlated bets. Since the Kelly Criterion indicates betting more money at shorter odds, a bet with less edge may actually have a superior MEG. The result is given in basis points. A basis point is a unit of measurement equal to one hundredth of one percent.
- Odds
- The odds of the bet.
- Probability
- The probability the bet wins.
- True Odds
- The fair or true odds of the bet.
- Odds Format
- Specifies the format used in odds fields.
Math
From Probability
- edge
- The edge as a decimal.
- b
- The net fractional odds of the bet.
- p
- The probability the bet wins.
- q
- The probability the bet loses.
From Odds
- edge
- The edge as a decimal.
- b
- The book decimal odds of the bet.
- t
- The true decimal odds of the bet.
Maximum Expected Growth (MEG)
- MEG
- The growth of the bankroll per bet as a decimal.
- f
- The full Kelly fraction of the bankroll to bet. When the edge is zero or negative the best bet is no bet, so f is zero and so is the MEG.
- b
- The net fractional odds of the bet.
- p
- The probability the bet wins.
- q
- The probability the bet loses.
MEG (simplified approximation)
For small edges the MEG is close to the following simpler formula, which is handy for estimating it by hand. It only holds for a positive edge. Squaring a negative edge gives the same growth as the positive one, where the true MEG is zero.
- edge
- The edge as a decimal.
- b
- The net fractional odds of the bet.
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